Broadband Video Waiting for a Breakout Hit

From Media Week

As of yet, there is no such thing as Must See BB. Despite the rash of high-profile broadband video launches over the past year or so, online video has yet to yield its first I Love Lucy, or even its first Knight Rider-sized hit.

It’s not that Web executives aren’t trying. On July 11, MSN will launch Fan Club, a show from the makers of Project Greenlight that lets viewers watch and influence the daily doings of a minor league baseball team. And this fall, in conjunction with CBS, AOL will launch Mark Burnett’s Gold Rush, which promises to send Americans on a nationwide scavenger hunt.But for now, determining broadband winners and losers is difficult, partially since no one is clear on what constitutes an online hit. The biggest traffic in online video tends to flow to aggregators like MSN Video or user-generated outlets like YouTube—rather than individual platforms or shows.
Among the many cable-generated broadband channels, MTV Overdrive (3.5 million uniques in May, according to comScore Media Metrix) and Nickelodeon’s TurboNick (1.6 million uniques) appear to be resonating, while E!’s The Vine claimed less than 200,000.

Meanwhile, Comedy Central’s Motherload didn’t even register with comScore – though officials say the platforms reached 800,000 in May based on internal numbers (many in the industry complain that metrics for online video leave a lot to be desired.)

Even the most high-profile broadcast shows to play on the Web—ABC’s streaming of Lost and Desperate Housewives—in May drew fewer than 1 million fans, comScore reports.
Among Web-only players, AOL’s classic TV destination In2TV exceeded expectations with 1.8 million uniques in May, said Kevin Conroy, executive vp, AOL Media Networks. “My response going in was, ‘A million uniques on a monthly basis, that would make me happy,’” he said. “In2TV is doing very solid numbers, considering that we built that base with content that is a couple of decades old. Out of the gate it’s doing really well compared to some of the other sites with brand new content.”

Of course, In2TV – which features full-length episodes of old shows like Alice and Falcon Crest - is a different animal than a made-for-the-Web series like Yahoo’s Hook Me Up, which since its May launch has yet to show up on comScore’s radar, though according to officials is tracking better than previous originals. “We’ve been very pleased with the results we’re seeing,” said Scott Moore, vp, content operations, Yahoo Media Group.

Despite an uncertain market, executives are optimistic about the potential for Gold Rush and Fan Club, though rivals warn they are “throwing a lot of money down a rathole.”

“Fan Club is very unique,” replied Rob Bennett, general manager of MSN’s Entertainment and Video Services. “Never before has a sports team opened itself up in this way. It should appeal to a range of age groups, from baseball fans to reality TV fans.”

Conroy is equally bullish on Gold Rush, particularly given In2TV’s early numbers. “It’s a great idea, and we are leaning into a growing market.”

But some media buyers doubt any “must-buys” will soon emerge. David Cohen, executive vp, U.S. director of digital communications, Universal McCann, called Gold Rush “very, very interesting,” but cautioned, “If you are looking for the Internet’s version of American Idol or the Super Bowl, that’s still the home pages of Yahoo and MSN.”

Some buyers even complained that big events like Gold Rush have been hard to buy into, since AOL focused on mega corporate deals. Regardless, Kari Hooper, associate media director for Starcom USA, said that the online video landscape offered more than enough quality options. “There is no one particular program that we are so excited about that I need to be in. There are a lot of choices in the marketplace right now.”

Such choice limits the potential of any one show, say some. “The Internet just isn’t that way,” said Yahoo’s Moore. “TV distribution is radically different than distribution on the Internet. That works against the notion of creating a big monster hit.”

Todd Chanko, Jupiter analyst, tended to agree, urging online buyers to take a wait and see approach. “To the extent that anything becomes a hit in the next six months, I’d be a bit cautious if I was a media buyer. We don’t even know what a hit is.”